Track record
Every NFL sportsbook pick, graded in public.
Every NFL sportsbook prop we post to members counts here, at the price it was posted at, good weeks and bad. The NBA Top 10 has its own record.
Opening soon. We'll announce the launch in our Discord.
2026 season
- Won–lost–push
- 435–321–0
- Units
- +41.2u
- ROI
- +5.5%
- 95% range −1.4% to +13.1%
- Hit rate
- 58%
756 graded picks · Oct 1 – Nov 12, 2026 · Value picks and #favorite-props combined
1 pick kicked off and waiting on a result
5 picks voided (not counted)
Past results do not predict future results.
Posted picks, Weeks 4–10 · +41.2uBacktest, Weeks 1–3 · 225 graded picks · −2.1u
756 graded picks · Oct 1 – Nov 12, 2026 · Value picks and #favorite-props · dashed line is 0 units
Weeks 1–3 came before posting began, so they're the backtest: the model's picks at the closing line, graded on the real results. They're not in the figures above.
Week by week
Each week's figures count Value picks and #favorite-props; its page lists every pick.
- Week 10, 202615 picks · Nov 12, 2026 · 1 waiting on a result5–10–0 · −5.4u · ROI −35.9%
- Week 9, 2026120 picks · Nov 5 – Nov 9, 202676–44–0 · +21.7u · ROI +18.1%
- Week 8, 202698 picks · Oct 29 – Nov 2, 202655–43–0 · +5.3u · ROI +5.4%
- Week 7, 2026105 picks · Oct 22 – Oct 26, 202655–50–0 · −1.3u · ROI −1.3%
- Week 6, 2026130 picks · Oct 15 – Oct 19, 202669–61–0 · −0.6u · ROI −0.5%
- Week 5, 2026165 picks · Oct 8 – Oct 12, 2026100–65–0 · +12.0u · ROI +7.3%
See all 10 weeks
- Week 4, 2026123 picks · Oct 1 – Oct 5, 202675–48–0 · +9.6u · ROI +7.8%
- Week 3, 2026Backtest81 picks · Sep 24 – Sep 28, 202638–43–0 · −10.4u · ROI −12.9%
- Week 2, 2026Backtest78 picks · Sep 17 – Sep 21, 202647–31–0 · +7.3u · ROI +9.3%
- Week 1, 2026Backtest66 picks · Sep 9 – Sep 14, 202636–30–0 · +1.0u · ROI +1.5%
How it's counted
- Every sportsbook pick posted to members since Oct 1, 2026 counts, once per prop and side in each channel (615 posts so far).
- Units are paid at the price the pick was posted at; since Oct 6, 2026, that's the best price across the legal sportsbooks we track. One unit risked per pick, on Value picks and #favorite-props.
- #alt-props and #touchdowns are tracked by won–lost and hit rate only. They're parlay legs and the likeliest scorers, not priced as value bets, so they show in the channel table and on each week's page, and every other figure here leaves them out.
- A pick stays hidden here until its game kicks off.
- Market-only picks never grade; they show on each week's page as Not graded.
- No parlays: each pick counts on its own.
By channel
| Channel | W–L–P | Units | ROI | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Value756 picks · Oct 1 – Nov 12, 2026 | 435–321–0 | +41.2u | +5.5% | 58% |
| #touchdowns183 picks · Oct 1 – Nov 12, 2026 | 85–98–0 | — | — | 46% |
| #alt-props374 picks · Oct 1 – Nov 12, 2026 | 278–96–0 | — | — | 74% |
By market · Value picks and #favorite-props
| Market | W–L–P | Units | ROI | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass Yds32 picks · Oct 4 – Nov 9, 2026 | 16–16–0 | −1.7u | −5.3% | 50% |
| Completions18 picks · Oct 4 – Nov 8, 2026 | 10–8–0 | +0.2u | +1.1% | 56% |
| Pass TDs51 picks · Oct 1 – Nov 9, 2026 | 30–21–0 | +1.9u | +3.8% | 59% |
| Rush Yds203 picks · Oct 1 – Nov 12, 2026 | 126–77–0 | +35.1u | +17.3% | 62% |
| Rec Yds94 picks · Oct 1 – Nov 12, 2026 | 41–53–0 | −16.4u | −17.5% | 44% |
| Receptions188 picks · Oct 1 – Nov 12, 2026 | 113–75–0 | +5.8u | +3.1% | 60% |
| Rush+Rec Yds138 picks · Oct 4 – Nov 12, 2026 | 79–59–0 | +10.6u | +7.7% | 57% |
| Pass+Rush Yds32 picks · Oct 4 – Nov 9, 2026 | 20–12–0 | +5.7u | +17.8% | 63% |
Score bands · Score v3 value picks
| Score | Expected hit | Actual hit | Units | ROI (95% range) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–59598 picks · Oct 4 – Nov 12, 2026 | 55% | 58% | +50.6u | +8.5%−0.1% to +17.1% |
| 60–69127 picks · Oct 4 – Nov 12, 2026 | 62% | 60% | −3.2u | −2.5%−17.1% to +12.1% |
A band with fewer than 100 picks is too small to read. 22 picks scored under 50 or not scored, so in no band. Expected hit is the band's average chance to hit when posted.
Each row counts its own picks, over its own dates. Past results do not predict future results.
Backtest: 2025 season
The model's picks at the closing line, graded on the real results. Separate from the posted record above.
Past results do not predict future results.
- Won–lost–push
- 846–678–0
- Units
- +41.7u
- ROI
- +2.7%
- 95% range −2.3% to +7.7%
- Hit rate
- 56%
1,524 graded picks · Sep 4, 2025 – Feb 8, 2026
1,524 graded picks · Sep 4, 2025 – Feb 8, 2026 · dashed line is 0 units
By market
| Market | W–L–P | Units | ROI | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass Yds140 picks · Sep 4, 2025 – Feb 8, 2026 | 70–70–0 | −7.6u | −5.4% | 50% |
| Completions32 picks · Sep 7, 2025 – Jan 25, 2026 | 20–12–0 | +6.0u | +18.7% | 63% |
| Pass TDs25 picks · Sep 7, 2025 – Jan 18, 2026 | 12–13–0 | −2.7u | −10.9% | 48% |
| Rush Yds427 picks · Sep 4, 2025 – Feb 8, 2026 | 235–192–0 | +16.9u | +4.0% | 55% |
| Rec Yds187 picks · Sep 4, 2025 – Jan 25, 2026 | 98–89–0 | −1.8u | −0.9% | 52% |
| Receptions384 picks · Sep 4, 2025 – Feb 8, 2026 | 231–153–0 | +21.1u | +5.5% | 60% |
| Rush+Rec Yds243 picks · Sep 4, 2025 – Feb 8, 2026 | 138–105–0 | +16.7u | +6.9% | 57% |
| Pass+Rush Yds86 picks · Sep 7, 2025 – Feb 8, 2026 | 42–44–0 | −6.9u | −8.0% | 49% |